Recently I posted about how poorly I drafted in 2010. What has become a habit is every year I think I had a good draft but when I look back on it few months later I realize I had a bad one.
This year I am going to blog my initial thoughts about my 2011 draft. And then in a few months I can look back and review it.
Unlike last year when I intensely disliked my #6 slot this year I was quite pleased with my #2 slot. Shortstop this season is incredibly shallow so I wanted either Hanley Ramirez or Troy Tulowitzki. At #2 I knew I could get either of these guys or Pujols if the unexpected happened and he wasn’t drafted.
I used Fantistics to help me draft and it rated Tulowitzki higher than Hanley. But 99% of every other fantasy baseball site rated Hanley higher. In the end I had to go with Hanley, he’s more durable, he has a longer track record, he still has a lot of potential.
Tulowitzki ended up being drafted at #10 which I thought was a good price. I thought Adrian Gonzalez being drafted at #4 and Carl Crawford at #5 was a bit too high. Carlos Gonzalez at #14 seems like a good deal too.
Finally I am glad I did not have the #3 slot because Miguel Cabrera’s alcohol problems scare me. He should be okay but I think if I had the #3 slot it would have taken me hours to decide whom to draft.
In the second round I was expecting to get Dustin Pedroia to complete my middle infield. However I was a bit surprised to see Chase Utley fall to me, my #1 pick from last year. There are concerns about knee tendinitis which is keeping him out of spring training. I hope he doesn’t become my 2010 Ian Kinsler. In fact I hope he doesn’t become my 2010 Chase Utley.
Jose Bautista was the story of the second round. He was taken early by the same team that took Troy Tulowitzki. I had targeted him for the third round. Though it was a bit early I think Jose will end up doing very well especially considering he qualifies at 3B and OF.
I thought Tim Lincecum and Kevin Youkilis were taken a little early and should have been taken in the third round. But overall a pretty solid round.
One final note on this round was the run on 1B and 3B players. I did not participate in it and I am not sure if that was a mistake.
I was thinking of taking Pedroia but decided I did not need another 2B. Plus as of this writing I am hoping to get Aaron Hill as my second 2B.
I then considered these three outfielders, all who have the chance to be in the top 20.
- Justin Upton
- Jason Heyward
- Andrew McCutchen
Different people have different opinions about whom to take. I decided not to take Andrew McCutchen because I decided I did not need the speed since I already drafted speed in the first two rounds. Also I thought he would be hitting leadoff but now it looks like he will be hitting third.
Jason Heyward is very attractive because of his great eye. I gravitate towards players with strong plate discipline. But in the end he just does not have a track record.
I ended up choosing Justin Upton because his 2009 was so great and he is still so young. Also he will be hitting 3rd vs. Heyward hitting 2nd.
Rounds 4 – 5
In the fourth round I was planning on taking Justin Morneau and in the fifth round I was planning on taking a starter. However Morneau was taken early in the fourth round. Considering reports I read later about his still not being completely recovered from his concussion I am glad I did not.
I did consider Kendry Morales but was spooked by reports that he is still not putting full weight on his ankle. I can just imagine the end of year reports saying Kendry Morales had a bad year because of his ankle.
I considered Billy Butler but thought it was far too early to take someone who hit 15 HR’s last season. I considered a 3B but decided I could wait on them. I considered an OF but the only one I wanted was Curtis Granderson and thought I could wait on him (he got drafted early in the sixth round who admitted he thought he was taking him early).
So against my better instincts I decided to take two starting pitchers. I considered six different starting pitchers who I considered could be top 10 starters.
- Josh Johnson
- Francisco Liriano
- Yovani Gallardo
- Ubaldo Jimenez
- Cole Hamels
- Jered Weaver
I then made a spreadsheet where I recorded on a scale of 1 – 6 where they ranked on ESPN, The Fantasy Man, Razzball, Rotoprofessor, Fantasy Baseball Insiders, Roto Hardball, CBS, Fantistics, Yahoo! and Fangraphs. Ubaldo and Josh Johnson were #1 followed very closely by Jered Weaver. The next tier was Cole Hamels and Liriano. Gallardo was the consensus worst.
Ubaldo’s second half scared me and I love Josh Johnson so I picked Josh. Then I picked Jered Weaver though Cole Hamels profiled quite similarly. I decided that if Cole Hamels was available in the 6th round I would take him.
Later I learned of Josh Johnson’s injury problems at the end of 2010. I don’t know why I never knew about that before but when I read that I regretted not taking Weaver and Hamels instead of Josh and Weaver.
Rounds 6 – 7
I was targeting Aramis Ramirez for awhile as my next third basemen. I was considering Mark Reynolds instead but his low average made me think he’d end up batting low in the lineup. When I saw Hamels taken I took Aramis because there really weren’t any good third basemen left.
I was hoping to get Granderson in the 7th round but he was taken in the 6th. I was wondering if I should have taken him earlier and forgot what a Yankee lover Mark is. I ended up taking Delmon Young because he’s young and still has upside.
Rounds 8 – 9
At this point I unfortunately dropped out of HRBL. It was a bad decision to have joined. On the family side we were in the middle of selling our home and packing. On the personal side I just had a bad fall and hurt my knee considerably. On the business side I was over my head trying to incorporate. It was an extremely stressful time and I realized I could not devote any more time to HRBL.
I regret tremendously causing turmoil for the league and so much trouble for the commissioner. I wasted a lot of peoples’ time and energy because of my bad decision to join HRBL.
I was planning on drafting Carlos Quentin and Carlos Pena next.
I wrote most of this post during the draft. Since I did not have time to finish the draft it is obvious that I would not have time to finish this post.
Looking back now it was another disastrous draft for the Funky Kimchees. Hanley Ramirez was the biggest bust of 2011. Chase Utley came back sooner than I expected but was still a bust for a second rounder especially considering the depth at 2B this season. Josh Johnson was fantastic for a few weeks and then was out the rest of the season. Delmon Young was horrific.
Justin Upton and Jered Weaver were the shining stars of my draft and were almost good enough to overcome my other busts.
It would have been a large uphill battle to win HRBL in 2011 and I doubt I would have. But considering that the team that I started is now in 3rd I think I would have finished top 4.